How Debt and Taxes Conspired to Rob Nairobi's Youth
Throughout the summer of 2024, of the capital, Nairobi, in a series of anti-government demonstrations.
Dubbed the 鈥溾 protests, the unrest was sparked by the introduction of an . A month later, the bill was , but protests have persisted and at least have been killed in the subsequent police crackdown on demonstrators.
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But the roots of the protests predate this summer; Kenyans have been dissatisfied with the country鈥檚 economy since , when initial protests began. And while the catalyst for these latest demonstrations may have been a series of tax increases proposed in the finance bill, the problems that young Kenyans face extend far beyond that issue.
For more than a decade, I have been and speaking with low-income residents in the capital. I鈥檝e watched Gen Zers grow up since 2010 when some were just 5 years old. That same year, Kenya adopted a that guaranteed protected rights for all Kenyans, including adequate and affordable housing, clean water, health, equality, freedom of assembly, freedom from violence, and children鈥檚 rights to basic education. In short, poor Gen Zers were promised a pathway toward a decent life.
The to deliver on that pledge provides the backdrop to the deep-rooted grievances among Kenya鈥檚 poor that have manifested in widespread protests this summer.
Hardship and promises
The epicenter of the current protests is Nairobi, a city in which around live in slums 鈥 .
Most residents of Nairobi鈥檚 slums live in extreme poverty, meaning they . With such meager earnings, the in recent years has made life intolerable for many, directly undercutting the promise of the 2010 constitution.
Kenyan governments have failed to deliver on promises for many reasons, but mostly for economic and institutional reasons. Money was made , resulting in an increase in the National Health Insurance Fund and new homes around the city. But health care and permanent housing remain unaffordable for the majority of residents who live in Nairobi鈥檚 slums. Funds for clean drinking water resulted in more public taps, but not enough to shorten the average slum dweller鈥檚 daily trek. Meanwhile, increased access to textbooks does not help those who cannot afford them, and improved sanitation in Kenya has been marginal.
In 2022, newly elected Kenyan President William Ruto . But his failure to do so has only fueled the recent protests. Inflation since 2021. Typical monthly costs, even without rent, have increased to US$533, or around $6,000 a year. Yet the in 2023 was just $2,110.
Meanwhile, recent have worsened the plight of many in Kenya. Downpours from October 2023 to May 2024 led to the worst floods the country has seen since 1997. As well as taking the lives of close to 300 people and , the rains ruined 168,000 acres of crops and killed more than 11,000 livestock.
Slum dwellings along the capital鈥檚 riverbanks were swept away, while 40,000 remaining homes within 30 meters (about 100 feet) of the Nairobi River for safety reasons. Yet no temporary housing was offered, leaving many homeless.
Who is protesting?
As a result of years of economic woe, worsened by this environmental disaster, conditions were ripe for discontent even before the summer. Then the Kenyan government released the June 2024 budget. Included were , among them a and taxes on family essentials such as diapers and sanitary products for women.
Kenya is a young country, with a median age of around . In Nairobi鈥檚 population of around 5.5 million people, those make up the majority.
These are the youth of Nairobi that led the protests, on June 25 as politicians took refuge in an underground tunnel.
On June 26, Ruto the proposed tax increases. In further concessions, he , and in the face of accusations of police brutality against protesters.
But Gen Z remained unsatisfied and continued to protest.
This should be no surprise. While the withdrawal of the tax bill removed immediate concerns, nothing was promised to address the deep-seated economic and social issues that young, poor Kenyans have shared with me over the years.
鈥淪ometimes, or most of the time, the money intended for poverty reduction in the slum end up being used for other things. 鈥 [It is either] stolen or, because of corruption, only little is left available for use to benefit the community,鈥 one resident of the Mukuru slum told me in 2020. Another said: 鈥淥ur problems are passed from one government to another. They come during elections to ask for votes; thereafter they go, never to come back for any meaningful development.鈥
Servicing foreign loans
Poor management of the economy and the mounting national debt that Kenya faces are in large part to blame for the lack of available money for poverty reduction. Around 60% of Kenya鈥檚 tax revenues , and the remaining 40% is spread thin.
Under Ruto, the national debt has 鈥 that鈥檚 nearly three-quarters of Kenya鈥檚 gross domestic product. This amount puts the country into a high-risk category for defaulting on its loans. The burden of servicing this national debt is already huge, and a default could further impinge the Kenyan economy.
Fears of a default prompted the proposed hike in taxes. But if the new tax bill had passed, it would have resulted in a widespread financial setback for households across the economic spectrum. Higher-earning Kenyans would have had to pay . There was also a number of regressive taxes, such as sales and value-added taxes, that would have disproportionately hit Kenya鈥檚 poorest. The levy on petroleum, for example, was to be hiked from 8% to 16%.
Stolen promises
Walking back the tax bill hasn鈥檛 solved Kenya鈥檚 problems, and on , Kenya鈥檚 new finance minister said that some of the proposed taxes would be introduced as the country looks to service its foreign debt.
But debate over how to service foreign debt does little to help the lot of Gen Zers in Nairobi鈥檚 slums. What they want is, in the words of one young slum resident I spoke to in 2020: 鈥淢odern housing, manufacturing companies to employ people, health programs, improved roads, education, training for skills, improved security and increased food production.鈥
Those are all things promised to them 14 years ago in Kenya鈥檚 changed constitution 鈥 but it was seemingly stolen from them as the country鈥檚 government looks to balance its budget and service mounting and unsustainable foreign debt.
, Professor, School of International Service,
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